From January through December 2025, the PAYCE® Score predicted bankruptcies across North America, including many mega-bankruptcies with liabilities of $1 billion or more. These companies were flagged as “high risk” at least three months in advance. Importantly, nearly 50% of the largest company bankruptcies showed prompt or near-prompt trade payment behavior shortly before filing (the cloaking effect). Because of this, traditional trade-only models did not flag them. We expect private-company bankruptcies to remain elevated through 2026.
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CreditRiskMonitor has updated its popular PAYCE® score, now with greatly expanded private company coverage and an uplift to 80% accuracy in predicting all declared bankruptcies.
Leveraging AI for accurate private company bankruptcy risk assessment, we were successful in predicting 71% of bankruptcies in 2021 with the PAYCE® score.
Leveraging AI for accurate private company bankruptcy risk assessment, we were successful in predicting 70% of bankruptcies thus far in 2019 with the PAYCE® score.
Leveraging AI for accurate private company bankruptcy risk assessment, we were successful in predicting 70% of bankruptcies in Q1 2020 with the PAYCE® score.
Leveraging AI for accurate private company bankruptcy risk assessment, we were successful in predicting 80% of bankruptcies in the first half of 2020 with the PAYCE® score.
Leveraging AI for accurate private company bankruptcy risk assessment, we were successful in predicting 79% of bankruptcies in 2020 with the PAYCE® score.
Leveraging AI for accurate private company bankruptcy risk assessment, we were successful in predicting 77% of bankruptcies in 2019 with the PAYCE® score.